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Forming an Opinion Which Way Your Chosen Currency Might Go

By: Paul Dubsky

It is known that currencies react to a series of events such as inflation, interest rates, the state of the economy, and so forth. Because of this, it is vital to keep evaluating the various data, in order to form an opinion of the direction the currency of your choice might be heading.

Let us look at inflation and what it actually means. It is not about a particular model of a boat or a motorcycle, or certain services costing more money, which could be due to business enterprise success or failure, but about a widespread increase in prices throughout the country.

The rate of the inflation is based on a calculation of the average price change right across the economy. This is usually taken over a period of a year, hence the term annual inflation.

If there is an annual inflation rate for a particular month, say March this year of two per cent, it would mean that the prices in general were 2 per cent higher this March, than in the same month last year. Therefore, a blend of usually purchased items costing GBP100 last March, would be costing GBP102 this March.

To get the right reading, prices are taken all over the country in many sectors like the supermarkets, big stores, travel and insurance firms, etc.

There are other issues which set the level of inflation in the economy, but the fundamental causes of inflation have to do with the extent of demand in the economy, and can be narrowed down to how much cash can be spent in relation to what can be produced.

When demand shoots up above what can normally be produced in normal circumstances, this upward pressure creates a rise in costs and prices. When the demand is down, this creates a downward pressure in costs and prices. To keep inflation controlled, it is required to keep a balance between the demand and output situation. When you have an excessive demand to the supply position, you have a formula to generate an inflation climate. This is the reason for stability as a goal.

Lowering interest rates may well see a rise in output, but only for a limited period. If both demand and output have been strongly increased and then suddenly fall, it is called boom and bust.

It is also useful to keep an eye on the extent of the employment and unemployment figures. These can indicate the size of the economic movement as well as the weight of labour demand, increases of wages, and of prices.

Do not forget to take notice of the (CPI) Consumer Price Index which is an important measure of inflation.

Watch also the balance of trade situation. A trade surplus is a positive balance of trade, namely the exports are bigger than the imports, whereas a trade deficit is a negative balance of trade with imports being larger than exports.

There are a number of other points that can be looked into of course, but the main ones are important to keep in mind at all times.

A number of people follow the charts, and keep an eye on what the position was year after year.

There is no known magic formula as such, to positively determine the direction of any currency pair, but being informed as much as possible, goes a long way to narrow the odds against you.

Paul Dubsky is director of Foreign Currency Exchange Services Ltd. http://www.foreigncurrencyexchangeservices.co.uk/

Thoughts On Forex

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Presently Forex market is a global telecommunication network of banks and different financial organizations. It does not have any fixed trading place and time restrictions - the trade starts on Monday morning in New Zealand and closes on Friday evening in USA
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First what is Forex: The FOREX or Foreign Exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with an volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily, dealing in currencies. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another.
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Japan, on the other hand, imports 99% of its oil. Their reliance on oil imports makes their economy especially sensitive to oil price fluctuations. If oil prices continue to rise, the price of Japanese exports will be forced to rise as well, weakening their position in the world market. Over the past year, there has been a close correlation with rises in oil prices and drops in the value of the yen.
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What about Forecasting: Predicting current and future market trends using existing data and facts. Analysts rely on technical and fundamental statistics to predict the directions of the economy, stock market and individual securities.
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AUD/JPY is one of the important pairs influencing AUD after Dollar, Euro and Pound. Usually falling AUD/JPY is good for Yen Bulls as well.
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A WORD FOR NEW TRADERS
Traders that try to pick the tops and bottoms of the market throughout the day end up with mostly misery because inexperienced fellows in Forex departments even in first division clubs try to pick the tops and bottoms believing that is where the real big money is. And ego demonstration and bonus consideration comes into play too for smart college graduates. The first thing I do when facing new recruits is, do my best to destroy their ego and fear in the market first. Once their ego and fear are reasonably cured, they become dutiful followers of the market like Pavolv?s hounds and they can survive. And once they can survive, they can be taught on how to put temporary tops and bottoms to the market at much higher level of speculation school. Then, that may take at least a decade of training too.
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Speculators are active in the FX markets, as they are attracted to the opportunities that volatile and changing market conditions create. A multitude of economic forces impact the world�s currencies. Some of the forces at work include interest rate differentials, domestic money supply growth, comparative rates of inflation, central bank intervention and political stability. In times of global uncertainty, some currencies may benefit from perceived �flight-to-safety� status. Or, if one country�s economic outlook is perceived as strong by market forces, its currency may be firmer than another country�s currency, where economic or political conditions are viewed with caution.

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